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+--- Thread: 2024 MK (/showthread.php?tid=3125)
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2024 MK - bigmasterdrago - 2024-06-20
Although the uncertainty is high (8), this might be a keeper. The MPC and JPL don't seem to fully agree on elements and epoch, this could be one that is visible in plain telescopes.
Near close approach, it will be only ~18° altitude in my southern skies inside the Stinger of Scorpius, but moving near 4'/min at magnitude 9.66 June 29th, 02:00CDT.
With 18 obs over 43 days, discovered May 7th at Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala, the orbital els could get better by the close approach on July 29, 09:13CDT when it will be 15° below my horizon but moving 6.5'/min but mag 9.1 on the Sagittarius/Aquila border.
Kenneth Drake
RE: 2024 MK - bigmasterdrago - 2024-06-20
Wow! Looks like Brisbane, Australia has a great view @14:13UT June 29th. Dennis?? Rock up 70°. Moon down 5°. Sun down 83°. Rock moving over 1/2°/min at mag 9.
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-20
Yes, this is the second 'Rarity'=3 event in 2 days. Both are best viewed from the southern hemisphere. Using MPC's elements for the epoch 2024 Jun 20 0000 UT, ST4.1.11.07 Visual predicts that the peak brightness of 8.6 magnitude occurs on 2024 Jun 29 at 0700 EDT with the NEO traveling through Sagittarius at 341"/minute, but in daylight below the horizon in Columbus, Ohio.
ST4v predicts that this NEO should be easily visible near the horizon in Columbus on the morning of June 29 as it travels from Scorpius into Sagittarius.
This NEO is predicted to pass within the moon's orbit and it's the size of ~2 football fields.
I'll post additional information after the orbit is better refined.
Good hunting,
Phil S.
RE: 2024 MK - cg617 - 2024-06-21
Has anyone asked why 2024MK's periapsis happens to be pretty much earth's orbit?
It's apoapsis seems to be the meteor belt, so it's likely a meteor, rather than some 'man-made' item returning every now and then.
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-22
(2024-06-21, 04:11 PM)cg617 Wrote: Has anyone asked why 2024MK's periapsis happens to be pretty much earth's orbit?
It's apoapsis seems to be the meteor belt, so it's likely a meteor, rather than some 'man-made' item returning every now and then.
I don't know how common a periapsis=1 is, but with an estimated diameter of 88 m - 280 m it's not something that we launched. Unless this object has a high albedo that's throwing off the estimated absolute magnitude and making the estimated diameter larger than it really is, it's just how this NEO orbits. The inclination=8°. Interesting observation, though.
Phil S.
CNEOS has been updating the close approach information for 2024 MK. The initial information for 2024 Jun 20 was as follows: close approach on 2024-Jun-29 13:47±01:29 UT at a distance of 0.00197 AU moving with V Relative=9.37 km/sec, H=21.7 magnitude, diameter 120 m - 280 m and 'Rarity'=3. There is a 44 day observation arc, the Condition Code=8 and the Earth MOID=0.00199464 AU. The solution date was 2024-Jun-20 06:18:36 PDT. The initial reported observation was by ATLAS South Africa, Sutherland on 2024-06-16. The observation arc was extended using observations on 2024 May 7 by Pan-STARRS 1, Haleakala.
The updated CNEOS prediction for 2024 Jun 22 has the close approach on 2024-Jun-29 13:45±00:24 UT at a distance of 0.00197 AU moving with V Relative=9.37 km/sec, H=21.7 magnitude, diameter 120 m - 270 m, 'Rarity'=3. There is a 45 day observation arc, Condition Code=7, Earth MOID=0.00178128 AU. The solution date was 2024-Jun-22 05:49:38 PDT. The last observation used was from 2024 Jun 21.
It looks like it will be several more days before the orbit is refined enough to estimate the close approach time to <1 minute.
ST4v currently predicts that this NEO is in Centaurus at 16.6 magnitude traveling at 26"/minute.
Good hunting,
Phil S.
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-23
CNEOS now has the predicted close approach on 2024-Jun-29 13:47±00:15 UT, H=21.8 magnitude and the diameter as 120 m - 260 m. The observation arc is 46 days and the Condition Code=6. The estimated size is a bit smaller, but this isn't unusual as NEOs approach and additional observations are made.
It's still too far south to be seen from Columbus, Ohio, but it's brightening rapidly as it moves north through Centaurus.
Good hunting,
Phil S.
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-25
As of today, CNEOS has the close approach of 2024 MK on 2024-Jun-29 13:50± 00:07 UT. The distance is still 0.00197 AU and the Condition Code=6. They keep making small changes to the close approach time and given the close distance, accurate orbital elements will be needed to calculate an accurate ephemeris.
I also found an article about both 2024 MK and (415029) 2011 UL21:
During Asteroid Day Week two large asteroids will safely pass the Earth - Whatfinger News Summary
Good hunting,
Phil S.
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-26
As of today CNEOS has reduced the uncertainty of the close approach time of 2024 MK to <1 minute. The close approach is now predicted on 2024-Jun-29 13:49±<00:01 UT at a distance of 0.00197 AU moving with V Relative=9.37 km/sec, H=21.8 magnitude, diameter 120 m - 260 m and 'Rarity'=3. There is now a 50 day observation arc, the Condition Code=5 and the Earth MOID=0.00178288 AU. The solution date was 2024-Jun-26 08:15:16 PDT. The initial reported observation was by ATLAS South Africa, Sutherland on 2024-06-16. This NEO is on the MPC's list of Potentilly Hazardous Asteroids.
Using MPC's orbital elements for the epoch 2024 Jun 26 0000 UT, ST4 Visual predicts that the peak brightness of 8.8 magnitude will occur (to the nearest hour) on 2024 Jun 29 at 0700 EDT with the NEO 315.1k km distant traveling through Sagittarius at ~340"/minute in daylight and below the horizon in Columbus, Ohio. Close approach (to the nearest hour) is predicted on 2024 Jun 29 at 1000 EDT when the NEO is predicted to be 9.3 magnitude in Sagittarius in daylight and below the horizon in Columbus, Ohio.
This MP will be visible on the morning of June 29 in Scorpius. It's currently ~15 magnitude in Centaurus near omega Centauri..
Here's the Object Info dialog for this NEO:
Here's the predicted path for this object as it makes its close approach on June 29:
Since the NEO will be very close, parallax will affect the apparent position of the MP against the background stars. The orbit is now well defined so orbital elements should give more accurate predictions. As always, elements downloaded for times nearer to the close approach (but NOT after) will give the best results.
Some users have reported problems downloading elements from JPL's HORIZONS website, so if you plan to get elements from there, don't wait until the night of the event to test out the procedure.
Good hunting,
Phil S.
RE: 2024 MK - bigmasterdrago - 2024-06-28
Phil, Thanks for the updates.
I've been creating charts onscreen every night over the last several days. Each time getting osculating elements from Horizons and comparing the position with that of SkyTools. The error is getting smaller each time. My best observing window for 2024 MK is from 00:00CDT on June 29 to 03:00CDT. So a 3 hour window with the rock sliding across the Stinger of the Scorpion hovering ~19° up due south to 17° up SSW.
BTW, 9th mag 2024 MK will appulse 20 arc minutes from the center along the south edge of M7 at 03:00CDT on the 29th. A lot of bright comparison stars there. Along with NGC 6400 @2:10,
My plan is to grab UL21 at the beginning of Astronomical Twilight (22:00), then move on to hunting the other bright fast mover MK. Best plan I've had in years.
Weather conditions are predicted to be rather nice. Clear, ~80°, wind S@7Kt. Moon-rise 1:28CDT
RE: 2024 MK - PMSchu - 2024-06-28
Hi BMD,
Good luck on your hunt for 2024 MK. That's going to be a one night only show, unfortunately. At least the orbit's now well defined and the predicted path shouldn't change very much. CNEOS has reduced the Condition Code to 4 and there's a Doppler radar observation included as well.
As for (415029)2011 UL21, that NEO is so large that it will remain bright for several weeks. It should be <15.5 magnitude until July 17 by my calculations when it will be in Hercules. Parallax is less of an issue for this one as well as it's ~0.05 AU distant and receding.
Phil S.