2025-02-24, 08:59 PM
You're correct. At the time of the original post the probability of a collision was ~1/70, so unlikely.
As of 2025 Feb 24, CNEOS lists the following prediction for the close approach of 2024 YR4: 2032-Dec-22 08:30 ± 04:10 UT at a nominal distance of 0.00182 AU, a minimum distance of 0.00049 AU and a maximum distance of 0.00315 AU with a V Relative=13.31 km/sec. This is for a 61 day observation arc with a Condition Code=4 and an Earth MOID=0.00282823 AU. The solution date was 2025-Feb-24 08:05:16 PST.
The minimum distance of 0.00049 AU~46,000 miles so it looks like we should be OK.
Phil S.
As of 2025 Feb 24, CNEOS lists the following prediction for the close approach of 2024 YR4: 2032-Dec-22 08:30 ± 04:10 UT at a nominal distance of 0.00182 AU, a minimum distance of 0.00049 AU and a maximum distance of 0.00315 AU with a V Relative=13.31 km/sec. This is for a 61 day observation arc with a Condition Code=4 and an Earth MOID=0.00282823 AU. The solution date was 2025-Feb-24 08:05:16 PST.
The minimum distance of 0.00049 AU~46,000 miles so it looks like we should be OK.
Phil S.